Capital One Bowl pits Penn State against LSU

NCAA Football Betting Lines

01/01/2010 - Orlando, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 11th-ranked Penn State Nittany Lions are set to tangle with the 13th-ranked LSU Tigers in the Capital One Bowl from Florida Citrus Bowl Stadium in Orlando.

The Nittany Lions were beaten by USC in last year's Rose Bowl. They had BCS aspirations entering this season, but those hopes were squashed when Ohio State handed the Nittany Lions their second loss of the season in early- November. Penn State has not beaten a ranked opponent all year, and the players have pointed to that as one of the motivating factors in this matchup.

"Well, there's a lot being said about us not being able to win the big game or something like that," Penn State senior quarterback Darryll Clark said at media day. "We've asked for a big game and we've asked for a worthy opponent, a really good opponent and we found one in LSU."

Clark won't find anyone to argue that point as LSU has won its last four bowl games, including the BCS National Championship two seasons ago. The Tigers are returning to the Capital One Bowl for the first time since a last-second loss to Iowa in 2005. However, this year's squad has stumbled through its past four games, with two losses and a pair of narrow victories over Louisiana Tech and Arkansas. Still, the Tigers finished second in the SEC's Western Division and have been ranked in the Top-25 all season, even as high as No. 4 at one point.

"I know our players wanted to play in the best bowl, against a quality opponent in the greatest bowl destination and Orlando was the pick," LSU head coach Les Miles said upon learning of his opponent. "Anytime the Big Ten and the SEC get together it is an exciting game."

LSU and Penn State have faced each other only one other time, with that meeting in the 1974 Orange Bowl going to the Nittany Lions in a 16-9 final.

Behind running backs Evan Royster and Stephfon Green, Penn State has no problem playing a smashmouth-style of football. Royster rushed for 1,128 yards this season and averaged 5.9 yards per carry, while the speedster Green provides an effective change of pace when called upon. Then again, having eclipsed 500 total yards on four occasions this season, the Nittany Lions can also hold their own in a shootout. Clark has been Penn State's unquestioned offensive leader over the past two seasons. He enters this matchup as the Big Ten leader in passing efficiency and has thrown a school-record 23 touchdown passes on the year. One of the reasons Clark has felt so comfortable in the pocket is because of left tackle Dennis Landolt. Before the season, Landolt switched from right tackle to left in order to protect Clark's blind side, and the transition was seamless, as Landolt was named a First Team All-Big Ten selection. Landolt and the rest of the offensive line is tied for second in the conference in fewest sacks allowed.

Once again, the Nittany Lions boast one of the nation's elite defensive units, as they rank fourth in the country in scoring defense (11.83 ppg) and eighth in total defense (277.08 ypg). Senior defensive tackle Jared Odrick is a three-time All-American and an absolute force in the trenches. Despite facing constant double teams, Odrick made enough of an impact to garner 2009 Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year honors after notching six sacks, 10 tackles for loss and a blocked field goal. All-American linebacker Navarro Bowman helped the Nittany Lions finish strong and was the Big Ten's Defensive Player of the Week for each of the final two weeks. Despite missing nearly three full games to injury early in the season, Bowman still managed to lead the team with 15.5 TFLs, and his per-game average (1.55) ranks second nationally. He is flanked by fellow standout linebacker Sean Lee, who recorded 80 tackles (10.5 TFL) and seven pass break-ups during the regular season.

LSU enters the game with the nation's 108th-ranked offense, averaging a mere 309.7 ypg. But don't be fooled, this unit has a propensity for making plays when needed. Senior wideout Brandon LaFell is a solid red-zone target for sophomore quarterback Jordan Jefferson. LaFell caught 10 touchdown passes on the season and finished with 705 yards on 52 receptions. His 24 career touchdown grabs are two shy of Dwayne Bowe's school record. Jefferson has had a promising first season as the full-time starter under center. He is completing 62.1 percent of his passes and has thrown 16 touchdowns with only six interceptions. The passing game features mostly short and intermediate routes, as Jefferson averages only 178.5 passing yards per game. All-SEC First Teamer Ciron Black is a road-grader on the offensive line, although the Tigers rank 11th in the SEC in rushing offense (129.6 ypg).

Defensively, LSU is a lot like Penn State. The Tigers rank 12th in the nation in scoring defense (16.0 ppg) despite playing the likes of Georgia, Florida and Auburn. All-SEC cornerback Patrick Peterson had 15 passes defended this season, which ranked third in the league. Recognized as one of the nation's elite cover guys, Peterson often makes opposing quarterbacks think twice before throwing his way. He is complemented in the secondary by junior safety Chad Jones, a Second Team All-SEC pick who registered 66 tackles, three interceptions and long punt return touchdown against Mississippi State. Junior linebacker Kelvin Sheppard leads the team with 103 tackles, which ranks fourth in the SEC. Senior linebacker Perry Riley is next in line with 92 tackles.

Under Les Miles, LSU has gone 4-0 in bowl games and will be making its fifth straight bowl appearance, two of those being BCS bowls. Meanwhile, Penn State is playing in its fourth New Year's bowl game in the last five years. Obviously, these two programs have been among the nation's elite over the latter part of the decade, and now they'll finally get to square off against one another. One of the many storylines here will be how well the Nittany Lions respond to a long layoff, as they haven't played since November 21st.

"That's the problem you have when you go to a bowl game nowadays when you're a Big Ten team," Penn State coach Joe Paterno said at media day. "Everybody else has played a couple of games (more recently)."

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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